What CREB’s Outlook Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors
Each year, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) releases its annual forecast to help homeowners, buyers, sellers, and investors understand where the market is heading.
The 2026 CREB® Forecast Report, prepared by Chief Economist Ann‑Marie Lurie, confirms what many Calgarians, and many of our recent clients, have already begun to observe on the ground: the market has shifted, moving away from the tight, seller‑driven conditions that defined much of 2022 through 2024.
Now firmly in a period of balanced-to-buyer-leaning conditions, the Calgary real estate market is being shaped by higher supply and more measured demand, which varies widely by property type.
So what does this mean for you? Follow along below, as we break down the most important takeaways from the 2026 forecast, and what they mean specifically for Calgary homeowners and investors.
The Big Picture: A More Balanced Market Takes Shape
Heading into 2026, Calgary’s real estate market is no longer being defined by urgency or scarcity. Instead, it is settling into more balanced conditions, a notable shift from the seller‑driven environment that characterized much of 2022 through 2024.
At a high level, two forces are driving this change: demand is slowing, while supply is steadily rising.
On the demand side, both population growth from record-high levels of immigration and employment gains are moderating, bringing buyer activity closer to long‑term averages. Sales are forecast at approximately 22,200 transactions in 2026, slightly below recent years (although not out of step with historical norms), reducing the competitive pressure that previously pushed prices higher.
At the same time, supply has expanded meaningfully. Across resale, new construction, and rental inventory, more homes are coming to market, particularly as projects started during the recent building surge enter the market. In 2025 alone, Calgary recorded over 26,000 housing starts, many of which are now adding to available inventory.
The forecasted impact on home prices is pretty straightforward: overall benchmark prices are expected to decline modestly in 2026 (‑0.9%), with notable variations by home type and market segment.
Looking at the Specifics: How Each Market Segment Is Affected
While the overall market is moving toward balance, the impact of these conditions, and what they mean for you, varies significantly by property type. Here’s how CREB® expects the major segments to perform in 2026:
Condos & Apartments face the most pressure. Inventory reached record highs in 2025, and additional supply from both new condo completions and purpose‑built rentals is expected to weigh on the segment again in 2026. CREB® forecasts apartment benchmark prices to decline by approximately 3.5%, with sales remaining below recent highs as rental availability improves.
Row Homes are also expected to see continued softening, though at a slower pace than apartments. CREB® forecasts an additional 1.9% price decline in 2026, largely driven by elevated inventory in certain districts. Well‑located and newer properties may outperform, but condition, pricing, and neighbourhood context matter more than ever.
Semi‑Detached Homes remain one of the more balanced segments. With limited new supply and steady demand, prices are expected to stabilize in 2026, with forecast growth under 1%. Variation by location and price point will continue, but overall conditions are healthier than in higher‑density segments.
Detached Homes continue to show the greatest resilience. CREB® expects sales to remain near long‑term averages, with benchmark prices essentially flat (+0.1%). While inventory has increased, demand has been strong enough to prevent real declines.
The Rental Market is also adjusting. Record levels of purpose‑built rental construction combined with slower migration have increased availability. With over 11,800 rental units under construction, vacancy rates are expected to remain elevated in 2026, placing downward pressure on asking rents.
The Economic Backdrop and What It Means for You
Most economists still anticipate that Alberta will outperform many provinces economically, supported by energy, petrochemicals, tech, and industrial investment. However, job growth and migration are slowing, and unemployment is anticipated to remain elevated in Calgary through 2026.
With inflation back near target, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady in 2026, keeping borrowing costs relatively stable, but not dramatically lower. This reinforces a broader theme running through the forecast: less momentum, more normalization.
For Calgarians, this environment doesn’t point to a market in trouble: it points to a market maturing.
Buyers benefit from more choice, less urgency, and greater negotiating power.
Sellers will find success through pricing accuracy, presentation, and strategy rather than timing alone.
Investors are rewarded for focusing on fundamentals: cash flow, tenant quality, and long-term planning.
In a balanced market like this, thoughtful decisions consistently outperform speculative ones.
Final Thoughts: A Forecast Is a Guide, Not a Guarantee
With any report, it’s essential to remember that a forecast is exactly that: a forward‑looking snapshot based on current data, assumptions, and economic conditions.
While CREB’s 2026 outlook provides a strong framework for understanding where Calgary’s market is headed, unforeseen factors, from global economic shifts and changes in interest rate policy to geopolitical events or unexpected changes in migration, can always influence outcomes.
That’s why the most effective real estate decisions aren’t made by reacting to headlines alone, but by understanding how broader trends intersect with your specific situation, property type, timeline, and financial goals.
If you’re wondering how the 2026 forecast applies to you, whether you’re considering buying, selling, holding, or investing, a personalized conversation can provide far more clarity than any general report.
We’re always happy to walk through the data for your property type and community, answer your questions, and help you make sense of what it means for your next move in Calgary’s evolving market.
