Why the 2023 Calgary Real Estate market is bucking yearly trends.
There’s no question that 2023 has proved to be an exceptional year in the Calgary real estate market.
Despite regular increases in the cost of borrowing, the Calgary market has continued to soar, especially compared to other major Canadian markets like Toronto and Vancouver. In fact, the average price for a detached home in Calgary increased from $637k to $707k from August 2022 to August 2023.
However, after a record-setting summer, many potential sellers are wondering what’s in store this fall and whether or not the fall real estate market will carry forward the momentum we’ve seen this year or dip in the direction of annual market trends.
Here are a few things to contemplate if you’re considering entering the real estate market in fall 2023.
Historically, the most active months in the Calgary real estate market are April, May and June. Both the increased daylight hours and more favourable weather make this an ideal time for property showings and showcasing a home’s curb appeal.
Seasonal Trends in the Calgary Real Estate Market
Historically, the most active months in the Calgary real estate market are April, May and June. Both the increased daylight hours and more favourable weather make this an ideal time for property showings and showcasing a home’s curb appeal.
Additionally, many buyers looking to make a purchase before summer vacation or before the next school year begins enter the market at this time, furthering the seasonal increase in demand.
Thus, historically, the summer real estate markets tend to favour sellers, who can take advantage of the influx of motivated buyers. Whereas the fall and winter seasons present increased buyer opportunities with reduced competition.
What's Different Heading into Fall in 2023?
Generally speaking, the first signs of the seasonal market slowdown here in Calgary begin as early as mid-July, as many folks settle into their summer rhythms and holiday plans.
Yet the 2023 Calgary real estate market remained remarkably strong throughout the summer and, as of September 1st, continues to show signs it’s ready to buck many annual trends.
For some comparison, Calgary home sales for August 2023 were up nearly 28% over last year. And, thanks to a surge in the condominium market, August sales reached a record high of 2,729 units, with the benchmark price of a Calgary home reaching $570,700 — a 7.9% increase over last year.
What’s behind all this?
The short answer is immigration and inventory. With interprovincial and international migration, we have an average of 62 people moving to Calgary daily. At the same time, inventory rates are down 32% from August 2022.
In addition, demand is still high as we head into the fall market, as many buyers still haven’t secured a home. So despite a slight seasonal decrease in overall sales activity, we still have an 87 percent sales-to-new-listings ratio and only 1.19 months of supply — down a whopping 46.9% compared to last year.
Here’s another way of thinking about it. Typically, inventory levels for August tend to hover around 6,000 units. This year, 3,254 units are on the market —nearly half the seasonal average!
Things to Consider if You Plan to Sell Right Now
Regardless of historical and seasonal trends, the Calgary market remains a sellers' market — and, with inventory so low, a strong housing market is likely to continue into Q4 of 2023. If you plan to sell your home right now, you can expect to get a high price, potentially even with multiple offers.
That said — if you decide to sell your house this fall, make sure you have a plan for what you will do after you sell.
Are you going to be buying another home? Will the home you want be available in this type of low-inventory market? And, if you’re planning to rent while you look for a new home, have you considered how expensive renting is right now?
These are all critical questions to ask yourself as you contemplate whether or not to enter the current market.
As always, if you need help, advice, or assistance determining your home's current market value, don’t hesitate to reach out!
